ぼやかせていただいております。

朝日新聞記者の英語力というか、読解力、推理力は大丈夫か?

2016年10月08日 18時09分25秒 | Weblog
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奥山俊宏認証済みアカウント
‏@okuyamatoshi

日本の被害者数については分析者によって意見が分かれるが、いずれにせよ「絶滅に瀕する」と指摘されたという。Pentagon Studied Future Japan Nuclear Arsenal and War With China



Pentagon Studied Future Japan Nuclear Arsenal and War With China
Net Assessment think tank under scrutiny for obscure research


Nuclear experts were unable to calculate accurately Japanese deaths from a nuclear war because of a disagreement among analysts on whether large blasts against cities would create firestorms and thus likely double the death rate. According to one briefing slide in the report, “Either way, Japan faces extinction” from a Chinese attack.


そうも書いてあるが、それは、多分に比喩的で、


Japan can quickly build a strategic arsenal of land-based and submarine-launched missiles capable of killing up to 30 million Chinese in a nuclear war, according to a Pentagon sponsored study.

A report produced for the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment reveals Japan’s government could arm itself with nuclear weapons within a 10-year period, based on Tokyo’s advanced nuclear power infrastructure and its present day space launchers, cruise missiles, and submarines.

Casualty estimates in the report outlining a Chinese nuclear attack on Japan indicate Tokyo would be no match in a future nuclear exchange. Japan would suffer up to 34 million deaths—27 percent of the island nation’s population—from Chinese nuclear missile strikes.


核兵器で、日本による核攻撃で中国人最大3000万 日本は中国による核攻撃で3400万の犠牲者=死者がでる、と。

日本は中国の相手にならない、というが、中国としても3000万の犠牲を覚悟するか、どうか?



According to the ONA report, the Pentagon’s interest in Japan’s nuclear options has taken on urgency because Japanese fears that current U.S. nuclear security guarantees against Chinese or North Korean nuclear attacks are weakening and could be insufficient in the future to deter Beijing or Pyongyang.

According to the report, factors that could drive Japan to nuclearize include a major shift in U.S. deterrence policy, South Korean building nuclear arms, an Iranian nuclear test, or the use of nuclear arms by Russia or China.



北朝鮮、中国の台頭を前に、このアメリカの体たらくで、日本が核武装を準備するようになるのでは、と。

そう考えるのは、とーーぜん。



俊宏認証済みアカウント
‏@okuyamatoshi

国土狭小の島国・日本にとって、自前の核武装はさほどの抑止力にならず、大国・アメリカの核の傘に頼ることに決めたときの議論を改めて確認する内容になっている、といえる。


そうかああ? ?


The Japan nuclear report, while unclassified, appears to provide an expert assessment for how Japan could best develop nuclear forces, taking into account the Pacific nation’s World War Two experience of conventional firebombing and two nuclear attacks.・・・・・



ぜんぜん違うじゃん。

これ、朝日の記者かい?

全然読んでないだろ?




As a result of that experience, the report found that Japanese naval forces would likely choose a nuclear force built around off-shore based, nuclear-missile firing submarines, with a land-based component of road-mobile missiles.


Japan’s current space launcher, the Epsilon, is similar to the ten-warhead capable U.S. MX missile, systems which were dismantled in 2005.

A Japanese nuclear missile may not need multiple warheads, but Tokyo could develop the capability as China continues to pursue missile defense developments.

Regarding warheads, Japan could build a warhead similar to the U.S. 1.2 megaton W-47 warhead.

The attendees at the Japan nuclear forces conference were told that Japan likely would adopt a “deterrence by punishment” policy—threatening proportionate nuclear strikes if attacked—rather than deterrence by denial—dissuading nuclear strikes by hardening or hiding targets.



専門的なことはわからんが、日本は、相手の攻撃に比例した制裁攻撃の政策を取るだろう、と。



In a nuclear exchange with the Chinese, Beijing would likely strike the 20 to 30 largest Japanese cities with 3 megaton weapons—the equivalent of 3 million tons of TNT—killing between 23 million and 33 million people.

A nuclear-armed Japan could launch ballistic and cruise missiles in several retaliatory scenarios, including 150 kiloton bombings of 45 cities, killing 20 million Chinese, or the use of larger 1.2 megaton warheads on 60 cities, for an estimated toll of between 96 million and 128 million people.



中国は、日本の大都市に核爆弾ぶちかまし、2300万から3300万人を殺害、日本は、2000万の中国人ないし、より大きな核弾頭で、9600万から1億2800万の中国人を殺害するだろう、と。


For North Korea, an attack on 10 Japanese cities with 10 kiloton warheads would kill around 1 million, and could invite a Japanese 1.2 megaton blast over the North Korean capital of Pyongyang, killing an estimated 1.1 million North Koreans.


北朝鮮と日本では、日本が100万の犠牲、北朝鮮は、110万の犠牲になろう、と。



The officials assessed Japan could easily developed torpedo-tube launched land attack cruise missiles with a range of 1,500 miles. Japan plans to have 22 submarines in its naval forces and could keep 100 nuclear cruise missiles on station.

A second option would be for Japan to develop intermediate range missiles with 2,000-mile ranges that could be capable of hitting all major Chinese cities from Japanese territory.

Japanese space officials have indicated that current space launchers can be fired from mobile launchers—an indication that the systems could be converted from launching satellites to carrying warheads.


日本は容易に核兵器を製造する能力はあるんだ、と。


中国が、 128 million people の犠牲、北朝鮮が、1.1 million North Koreansを犠牲にして、日本とやり合うと思う?

deterrence by punishment”で、かなり抑止力になるわけでしょう。


アメリカの方の評価としては、


Dunford’s report also identified major sources of U.S. military risk. Chief among the risks is the danger of U.S. forces having to fight more than one conflict at a time. Other key vulnerabilities for the military include shortages of intelligence resources, missile defenses, naval expeditionary forces, airborne command and control, air superiority forces, global precision strike weapons, and cyber warfare forces.

The emphasis on U.S. vulnerabilities is one reason net assessments were not made public. Doing so would assist foreign powers in developing forces and capabilities for defeating the United States in a future war.


かなり弱点があって、それゆえに報告が公にされなかったのだ、と。


大丈夫か? 朝日新聞?










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