ぼやかせていただいております。

North Koreans fully understand that the Chinese need North Korea to survive

2017年07月06日 12時29分44秒 | Weblog



JOHN MEARSHEIMER, University of Chicago: No, I don’t think sanctions will work, Judy, and I think there are two reasons for that.

One is that North Korea is not going to give up its nuclear weapons. Indeed, it would be crazy to give up its nuclear weapons. The United States is interested in regime change, and nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent.

So, you would have to inflict enormous pain on North Korea to get it to give up those nuclear weapons. I mean, you would really have to put tremendous economic pressure on them. And you cannot do that, in large part because the Chinese will not allow you to do it.

For China, North Korea is a vital strategic asset. For China, it’s imperative that the North Korean regime remain in place and that the regime not be toppled. Therefore, if we try to put really significant pressure, economic pressure, on Pyongyang, the Chinese will just move in and counter it and make sure that the North Korean regime survives.


JOHN MEARSHEIMER: What President Trump wanted to do was, he wanted to get the Chinese to put significant pressure on North Korea to stop these nuclear tests and to reach some sort of modus vivendi with the United States.

But the Chinese could not do that. And the reason the Chinese could not do that and the reason they won’t be able to implement David’s suggested policy is because the Chinese have remarkably little leverage over North Korea. And the North Koreans fully understand that. And the North Koreans don’t play along with the Chinese when they put pressure on them, because the North Koreans fully understand that the Chinese need North Korea to survive.

And once the North Koreans understand that, it gives them significant room to basically poke the Chinese in the eye.


JOHN MEARSHEIMER: Well, you can do a little bit more, but the point is to make the North Koreans give up their nuclear weapons, you have to put a great deal of pain, a great deal of punishment on them. And the Chinese are not going to play that game, because the Chinese are heavily dependent on maintaining a sovereign North Korea.

And the last thing they want to do is see the West bring North Korea to its knees, and then see North Korea crumble, and run the risk of South Korea incorporating North Korea into a greater Korea. This would be a strategic disaster for the Chinese. And this is why we have so little leverage over North Korea when we try to go through the Chinese.


北朝鮮が崩壊して韓国に統合されるというのも、中国にとっては悪夢であるわけですね。

だから、いくらアメリカが経済制裁しても、中国は北朝鮮が崩壊しないように、配慮するだろう、と。


ーー難民問題と、さらに、米軍がいる韓国に統合されて、米軍が中国の隣にいるのはなんとしても避けたいんでしょうね。

ロシアにとってのクリミアのように、緩衝地帯というのは、大国にとって存外重要なんでしょうね。


 翻って、地政学的にみると、その昔、朝鮮が主権国家としてしっかりしていれば、日本が、朝鮮併合することもなかったわけで、中国としては、北朝鮮政権がやばくなったとき、併合ないし、併合に近いことをしちゃうということもありえるわけですね。


 再び大国の悲劇の誕生になるか、どうか。


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