An expert warns that a preemptive strike on North Korea would lead to “very big war” - Vox via kwout
Zeeshan Aleem
What could happen to Japan and South Korea?
The risk would be that Japan would be the only country in the history of civilization to have been attacked yet again with a nuclear weapon.
Zeeshan Aleem
Pyongyang can fire nuclear warheads that would reach Japan?
Jonathan Pollack
That's one of the great debates — whether they've miniaturized a warhead sufficiently to be able to put it atop a missile and reach targets in Japan and maybe beyond. And a lot of Americans are very seized by the idea that North Korea plans an intercontinental ballistic missile, but the reality is their threat right now, whatever capabilities they do have of this sort, they're regional; they're not intercontinental.
That's worrisome enough to me at least, and to many others. But it's a very hard thing to prove. North Korea would like us to believe they have these capabilities, but they have never tested a nuclear weapon on a missile. That's an international norm they have yet to violate.
But an argument in many circles is that that's not a risk you can take lightly — you have to make assumptions as if they have that kind of capability.
Jonathan Pollackってどういう人なんだろうねええ。
朝鮮有事になったら、日本はどうなる、という質問に、日本は再び、被爆国になろうだろう、と。
北朝鮮は、日本に届くミサイルに乗せられるような核の小型化に成功したのか、という問いに、わからない、と。また、北朝鮮は、核を搭載したミサイル実験はしたことがない、と。
この記事
There is no urgent danger to Japan from a nuclear attack by Fat Boy.
や、この記事
北朝鮮核爆弾の標的は韓国か？
あるいは、こうした
標的は、韓国、沖縄、グァムの米軍基地 及び、青瓦台か
記事からすると、
たぶん、北朝鮮は、日本に届く核ミサイルはない。
逆にいうと、ないうちに核ミサイル開発を断念させてもらいたいところだね、日本としては。
