
¥Ý¥¹¥ÈµþÅԤθò¾Ä¹ÔÄø¤òµ¬Äꤹ¤ë¡Ö¥Ð¥ê¡¦¥í¡¼¥É¥Þ¥Ã¥×¡×¤Î¸ò¾Ä¤Ï¡¢¤É¤¦¤ä¤éÂçµÍ¤á¤ò·Þ¤¨¤Ä¤Ä¤¢¤ë¤è¤¦¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢²ñ¾ì¤Ë¤¤¤ë¤ÈÊ֤äƾðÊ󤬯þ¤Ã¤Æ¤¤Þ¤»¤ó¡£¥Í¥Ã¥È¤Ç¥Ë¥å¡¼¥¹¤ò¸«¤¿¸Â¤ê¤Ç¤Ï¡¢ºÇ¿·¤ÎµÄĹ°Æ¤«¤é¤Ï¡¢¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤Î¼çÄ¥¤òÆþ¤ì¤Æ¡¢Àè¿Ê¹ñ¤Î2020ǯ¤Þ¤Ç¤Îºï¸ºÌÜɸ¡Ê25¡Á40¡óºï¸º¡Ë¤¬ºï½ü¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤ª¤ê¡¢ÆüÊÆ¤Ê¤É¤Ïɾ²Á¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤ß¤¿¤¤¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢2050ǯ¤Þ¤Ç¤ËÁ´À¤³¦¤ÇȾ¸º¤È¤¤¤¦Ä¹´üÌÜɸ¤Ï»Ä¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤¿¤á¤Ë¡¢µÕ¤ËÅÓ¾å¹ñ¤¬È¿È¯¤·¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤È¤¤¤¦¾õ¶·¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ç¤¹¡£¤Þ¤À¤Þ¤ÀÂÅ·ëÅÀ¤Ë¤ÏÆÏ¤¤¤Æ¤¤¤Ê¤¤ÌÏÍͤǡ¢ËܲñµÄ¤âµÙ²ñ¤ËÆþ¤Ã¤Æ¤·¤Þ¤¤¤Þ¤·¤¿¡£¤³¤Î¤Þ¤Þ¡¢¤¤¤ÄºÆ³«¤µ¤ì¤ë¤È¤âʬ¤«¤é¤Ê¤¤¤Î¤Ç¡¢¤¢¤¤é¤á¤Æ½É¼Ë¤ËÌá¤Ã¤Æ¤¤Þ¤·¤¿¡£
ÌÀÄ«¤Ë¤Ï¡¢¸ò¾Ä·ë²Ì¤¬½Ð¤Æ¤ë¤³¤È¤È»×¤¤¤Þ¤¹¤¬¡¢º£Ç¯¤Î¥Ö¥í¥°¤Ï¡¢¤³¤Î²ó¤ÇºÇ¸å¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¤È»×¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡£
º£²ó¤Î¥Ö¥í¥°¤Ï¡¢ºòǯ¤Þ¤Ç¤Û¤É¡¢¸ò¾ÄÆâÍÆ¤ò¥Õ¥©¥í¡¼¤·¤Æ¤¤¤Ê¤¤¤â¤Î¤È¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤·¤¿¡£¤³¤ì¤Ï¡¢¥Ý¥¹¥ÈµþÅÔ¡¢REDD¡¢Å¬±þ¡¢µ»½Ñ°Üž¡¢»ñ¶â¥á¥«¥Ë¥º¥à¤Ê¤É¡¢¾ÇÅÀ¤È¤Ê¤Ã¤¿µÄÂ꤬¿´ô¤ËÅϤäƤª¤êÁ´¤Æ¤ò¥Õ¥©¥í¡¼¤Ç¤¤Ê¤¤¤³¤È¡¢ºòǯ°ÊÁ°¤ÈÈæ¤Ùʪ¤Ë¤Ê¤é¤Ê¤¤¤Û¤É¥á¥Ç¥£¥¢¤Î´Ø¿´¤â¹â¤¯¥Í¥Ã¥È¤â´Þ¤á¤ÆÃà°ì¸ò¾Ä²áÄø¤¬¤¤¤í¤¤¤í¤Ê¥ë¡¼¥È¤ÇÊó¹ð¡¦Ê󯻤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤³¤È¡¢¤Þ¤¿Ëͼ«¿È¤Ï2½µÌܤ«¤é¤Î»²²Ã¤À¤Ã¤¿¤¿¤á¤Ë¸ò¾ÄÁ´ÂΤÎή¤ì¤ò¤Ä¤«¤ß¤¤ì¤Ê¤¤¤Þ¤Þ¤À¤Ã¤¿¤³¤È¤Ëµ¯°ø¤·¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡£
¤½¤Î°ìÊý¤Ç¡¢¤³¤ì¤Þ¤Ç¤Ï¡Ö²¹ÃȲ½¥Þ¥Õ¥£¥¢¡×¤È¸Æ¤Ð¤ì¤ë¥¤¥ó¥µ¥¤¥À¡¼¤Ë¤è¤ë²ñµÄ¤È¤¤¤¦Â¦Ì̤¬¤¢¤Ã¤¿COP¤¬¡¢º£Ç¯¤Ï¡¢»²²Ã¼Ô¤Î¿þÌ¤è¤¯¤â°¤¯¤â¹¤¬¤ê¡¢¤è¤ê¿´ô¤Ë¤ï¤¿¤ë¥¤¥Ù¥ó¥È¤ä´Ø¿´»ö¡¢µÄÏÀ¤Ê¤É¤¬É´²ÖåçÍð¤À¤Ã¤¿¤³¤È¤â¤¢¤ê¡¢COP¤Î¥á¥¤¥ó¤Î¸ò¾Ä¤È¤ÏľÀܴؤï¤é¤Ê¤¤Â¦Ì̤òÃæ¿´¤Ë¥ì¥Ý¡¼¥È¤·¤Æ¤ß¤¿¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¤¤¤«¤¬¤Ç¤·¤¿¤Ç¤·¤ç¤¦¤«¡£
º£²ó¤ÎCOP¤Ç¤Ï¡¢REDD¤¬Â礤ÊÀûÉ÷¤ò´¬¤µ¯¤³¤·¤¿¤Î¤¬¡¢¤ä¤Ï¤ê°ìÈÖ°õ¾Ý¤Ë»Ä¤ê¤Þ¤·¤¿¡£REDD¤Î¼è¤ê°·¤¤¤¬¤É¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¤«¡¢¤Þ¤À¶ñÂÎÁü¤Ï¸«¤¨¤Æ¤³¤Ê¤¤¤Î¤â»ö¼Â¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¹ñºÝ¼Ò²ñ¤¬¿¹ÎÓÊÝÁ´¤Ë¸þ¤±¤ÆÂ礤¯ÂɤòÀڤä¿Îò»ËŪ²ñµÄ¤Ç¤¢¤ë¤³¤È¤Ï´Ö°ã¤¤¤Ê¤¤¤È»×¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡£
°ìÊý¤Ç¡¢ÆüËÜÀ¯ÉܤΤ¢¤¤¤Þ¤¤¤µ¤¬¡¢¤¤¤Ä¤â¤Ë¤âÁý¤·¤ÆºÝΩ¤Ã¤¿²ñµÄ¤À¤Ã¤¿¤è¤¦¤Ë¤â»×¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡£ÆÃ¤Ë²¤½£¤ÎÃμ±¿Í¤Ê¤É¤¬ÈãȽ¤·¤Æ¤¤¤¿¤è¤¦¤Ë¡¢¡ÖÀ¤³¦Á´ÂΤÇÂçÉý¤Êºï¸º¤¬É¬ÍססÖÁ´¤Æ¤ÎÇӽйñ¤¬»²²Ã¤¹¤ëÏÈÁȤߤ¬É¬Íספʤɡ¢Â¾¿ÍË̤ܰǡ¢¼çÂÎÀ¤Î¤Ê¤¤¼çÄ¥¤Ð¤«¤ê¤¬ÌÜΩ¤Á¤Þ¤·¤¿¡£Íèǯ¡¢¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤ÎÀ¯¸¢¤¬ÊѤï¤ì¤Ð¡¢¥¢¥ë¡¦¥´¥¢»á¤Î¤¤¤¦¤è¤¦¤Ë¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤Î¥Ý¥¸¥·¥ç¥ó¤¬Â礤¯Å¾´¹¤µ¤ì¤ë²ÄǽÀ¤â¤¢¤ë¤ï¤±¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¤½¤Î¤È¤ÆüËܤϤɤ¦¤¹¤ë¤ó¤Ç¤·¤ç¤¦¤Í¡©Çӽи¢¼è°ú¤âÀèÁ÷¤ê¤ò·è¤á¤¿¤ß¤¿¤¤¤À¤·¡£¡£¡£
Íèǯ¤Ï¡¢¾ï²Æ¤Î¥Ð¥ê¤«¤éÂǤäÆÊѤï¤Ã¤Æ¡¢¸·´¨¤Î¥Ý¡¼¥é¥ó¥É¤Ç¤Î³«ºÅ¤È¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤¹¡£¤½¤ì¤Þ¤Ç¤Ë¡¢ÆüËÜÀ¯ÉܤÎÂбþ¤â¾¯¤·¤Ï´íµ¡°Õ¼±¤ò»ý¤Ã¤¿¤â¤Î¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤ì¤Ð¤È»×¤¦¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡£¡£¡£
¡Ú¼Ì¿¿¤Ï¡¢¥¨¥¯¥¢¥É¥ë¡¦¥¢¥ó¥Ç¥¹¤Î±À̸ÎÓ¡£ÆÈÆÃ¤Îµ¤¸õ¡¢ÃÏ·Á¡¢É¸¹â¡¢°ÞÅÙ¡¢³¤Î®¤Ê¤É¤Ë¤è¤ê¾ï¤Ë̸¤¬¤«¤«¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡¢¤³¤ÎÃÏÊýÆÈÆÃ¤Î¿¹ÎÓ·ÁÂ֤Ǥ¹¡Û
(by Yasu)
ÌÀÄ«¤Ë¤Ï¡¢¸ò¾Ä·ë²Ì¤¬½Ð¤Æ¤ë¤³¤È¤È»×¤¤¤Þ¤¹¤¬¡¢º£Ç¯¤Î¥Ö¥í¥°¤Ï¡¢¤³¤Î²ó¤ÇºÇ¸å¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¤È»×¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡£
º£²ó¤Î¥Ö¥í¥°¤Ï¡¢ºòǯ¤Þ¤Ç¤Û¤É¡¢¸ò¾ÄÆâÍÆ¤ò¥Õ¥©¥í¡¼¤·¤Æ¤¤¤Ê¤¤¤â¤Î¤È¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤·¤¿¡£¤³¤ì¤Ï¡¢¥Ý¥¹¥ÈµþÅÔ¡¢REDD¡¢Å¬±þ¡¢µ»½Ñ°Üž¡¢»ñ¶â¥á¥«¥Ë¥º¥à¤Ê¤É¡¢¾ÇÅÀ¤È¤Ê¤Ã¤¿µÄÂ꤬¿´ô¤ËÅϤäƤª¤êÁ´¤Æ¤ò¥Õ¥©¥í¡¼¤Ç¤¤Ê¤¤¤³¤È¡¢ºòǯ°ÊÁ°¤ÈÈæ¤Ùʪ¤Ë¤Ê¤é¤Ê¤¤¤Û¤É¥á¥Ç¥£¥¢¤Î´Ø¿´¤â¹â¤¯¥Í¥Ã¥È¤â´Þ¤á¤ÆÃà°ì¸ò¾Ä²áÄø¤¬¤¤¤í¤¤¤í¤Ê¥ë¡¼¥È¤ÇÊó¹ð¡¦Ê󯻤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤³¤È¡¢¤Þ¤¿Ëͼ«¿È¤Ï2½µÌܤ«¤é¤Î»²²Ã¤À¤Ã¤¿¤¿¤á¤Ë¸ò¾ÄÁ´ÂΤÎή¤ì¤ò¤Ä¤«¤ß¤¤ì¤Ê¤¤¤Þ¤Þ¤À¤Ã¤¿¤³¤È¤Ëµ¯°ø¤·¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡£
¤½¤Î°ìÊý¤Ç¡¢¤³¤ì¤Þ¤Ç¤Ï¡Ö²¹ÃȲ½¥Þ¥Õ¥£¥¢¡×¤È¸Æ¤Ð¤ì¤ë¥¤¥ó¥µ¥¤¥À¡¼¤Ë¤è¤ë²ñµÄ¤È¤¤¤¦Â¦Ì̤¬¤¢¤Ã¤¿COP¤¬¡¢º£Ç¯¤Ï¡¢»²²Ã¼Ô¤Î¿þÌ¤è¤¯¤â°¤¯¤â¹¤¬¤ê¡¢¤è¤ê¿´ô¤Ë¤ï¤¿¤ë¥¤¥Ù¥ó¥È¤ä´Ø¿´»ö¡¢µÄÏÀ¤Ê¤É¤¬É´²ÖåçÍð¤À¤Ã¤¿¤³¤È¤â¤¢¤ê¡¢COP¤Î¥á¥¤¥ó¤Î¸ò¾Ä¤È¤ÏľÀܴؤï¤é¤Ê¤¤Â¦Ì̤òÃæ¿´¤Ë¥ì¥Ý¡¼¥È¤·¤Æ¤ß¤¿¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¤¤¤«¤¬¤Ç¤·¤¿¤Ç¤·¤ç¤¦¤«¡£
º£²ó¤ÎCOP¤Ç¤Ï¡¢REDD¤¬Â礤ÊÀûÉ÷¤ò´¬¤µ¯¤³¤·¤¿¤Î¤¬¡¢¤ä¤Ï¤ê°ìÈÖ°õ¾Ý¤Ë»Ä¤ê¤Þ¤·¤¿¡£REDD¤Î¼è¤ê°·¤¤¤¬¤É¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ë¤Ê¤ë¤«¡¢¤Þ¤À¶ñÂÎÁü¤Ï¸«¤¨¤Æ¤³¤Ê¤¤¤Î¤â»ö¼Â¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¹ñºÝ¼Ò²ñ¤¬¿¹ÎÓÊÝÁ´¤Ë¸þ¤±¤ÆÂ礤¯ÂɤòÀڤä¿Îò»ËŪ²ñµÄ¤Ç¤¢¤ë¤³¤È¤Ï´Ö°ã¤¤¤Ê¤¤¤È»×¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡£
°ìÊý¤Ç¡¢ÆüËÜÀ¯ÉܤΤ¢¤¤¤Þ¤¤¤µ¤¬¡¢¤¤¤Ä¤â¤Ë¤âÁý¤·¤ÆºÝΩ¤Ã¤¿²ñµÄ¤À¤Ã¤¿¤è¤¦¤Ë¤â»×¤¤¤Þ¤¹¡£ÆÃ¤Ë²¤½£¤ÎÃμ±¿Í¤Ê¤É¤¬ÈãȽ¤·¤Æ¤¤¤¿¤è¤¦¤Ë¡¢¡ÖÀ¤³¦Á´ÂΤÇÂçÉý¤Êºï¸º¤¬É¬ÍססÖÁ´¤Æ¤ÎÇӽйñ¤¬»²²Ã¤¹¤ëÏÈÁȤߤ¬É¬Íספʤɡ¢Â¾¿ÍË̤ܰǡ¢¼çÂÎÀ¤Î¤Ê¤¤¼çÄ¥¤Ð¤«¤ê¤¬ÌÜΩ¤Á¤Þ¤·¤¿¡£Íèǯ¡¢¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤ÎÀ¯¸¢¤¬ÊѤï¤ì¤Ð¡¢¥¢¥ë¡¦¥´¥¢»á¤Î¤¤¤¦¤è¤¦¤Ë¥¢¥á¥ê¥«¤Î¥Ý¥¸¥·¥ç¥ó¤¬Â礤¯Å¾´¹¤µ¤ì¤ë²ÄǽÀ¤â¤¢¤ë¤ï¤±¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¤½¤Î¤È¤ÆüËܤϤɤ¦¤¹¤ë¤ó¤Ç¤·¤ç¤¦¤Í¡©Çӽи¢¼è°ú¤âÀèÁ÷¤ê¤ò·è¤á¤¿¤ß¤¿¤¤¤À¤·¡£¡£¡£
Íèǯ¤Ï¡¢¾ï²Æ¤Î¥Ð¥ê¤«¤éÂǤäÆÊѤï¤Ã¤Æ¡¢¸·´¨¤Î¥Ý¡¼¥é¥ó¥É¤Ç¤Î³«ºÅ¤È¤Ê¤ê¤Þ¤¹¡£¤½¤ì¤Þ¤Ç¤Ë¡¢ÆüËÜÀ¯ÉܤÎÂбþ¤â¾¯¤·¤Ï´íµ¡°Õ¼±¤ò»ý¤Ã¤¿¤â¤Î¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤ì¤Ð¤È»×¤¦¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡£¡£¡£
¡Ú¼Ì¿¿¤Ï¡¢¥¨¥¯¥¢¥É¥ë¡¦¥¢¥ó¥Ç¥¹¤Î±À̸ÎÓ¡£ÆÈÆÃ¤Îµ¤¸õ¡¢ÃÏ·Á¡¢É¸¹â¡¢°ÞÅÙ¡¢³¤Î®¤Ê¤É¤Ë¤è¤ê¾ï¤Ë̸¤¬¤«¤«¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¡¢¤³¤ÎÃÏÊýÆÈÆÃ¤Î¿¹ÎÓ·ÁÂ֤Ǥ¹¡Û
(by Yasu)











°ì¤Ä¼ÁÌä¤Ê¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¡ÖÀè¿Ê¹ñ¤Î2020ǯ¤Þ¤Ç¤Îºï¸ºÌÜɸ¡Ê25¡Á40¡óºï¸º¡Ë¤¬ºï½ü¡¢2050ǯ¤Þ¤Ç¤ËÁ´À¤³¦¤ÇȾ¸º¤È¤¤¤¦Ä¹´üÌÜɸ¡×¤ÏIPCC¤ÎÊó¹ð½ñ¤¬¥Ù¡¼¥¹¤Ë¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤È¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤ë¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢IPCC¤ÎÊó¹ð½ñ¤ò¸«¤ë¸Â¤ê¡¢¤½¤Î¤è¤¦¤Ê¿ô»ú¤¬½Ð¤Æ¤¤Þ¤»¤ó¡£¤â¤·¤´Â¸ÃΤʤ顢¤É¤ÎÉôʬ¤Ê¤Î¤«À§È󶵤¨¤Æ¤¯¤À¤µ¤¤¡£
¥Ð¥ê¤«¤éµ¢¹ñ¸å¡¢¹âÇ®¤Ë¸«Éñ¤ï¤ì¤Æ£±½µ´Ö¿²¹þ¤ó¤Ç¤¤¤¿¤¿¤á¡¢ÊÖÅú¤¬ÃÙ¤¯¤Ê¤Ã¤Æ¤·¤Þ¤¤¡¢¿½¤·Ìõ¤¢¤ê¤Þ¤»¤ó¡£
¤µ¤Æ¡¢¤´¼ÁÌä¤Î¡ÖÀè¿Ê¹ñ¤Î2020ǯ¤Þ¤Ç¤Î25¡Á40%¤Îºï¸º¡×¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢º£IPCCÂè»Í¼¡É¾²ÁÊó¹ð½ñ¡ÊAR4)¤¬¼êµö¤Ë¤Ê¤¤¤Î¤Ç¤¹¤¬¡¢¼Â¤Ï¡¢COP¤Î¹ç°Õʸ½ñ¤Ë¤Ï¡¢¤ï¤¶¤ï¤¶µÓÃí¤Ç½Ð½ê¤¬ÌÀµ¤µ¤ì¤Æ¤¤¤Þ¤·¤¿¡£Û©¤¯¡¢¡ÖIPCC-AR4 P.776¡×¤È¤Î¤³¤È¤Ç¤¹¡£
¼Â¤Ï¡¢¤³¤Î¤è¤¦¤ËIPCC¤Ë¸ÀµÚ¤¹¤ë·Á¤ò¼è¤Ã¤¿¤Î¤â¡¢À¯¼£Åª¤Ê¸ò¾Ä¤Î»ºÊª¤Ç¤¢¤ê¡¢²Ê³ØÅª¤ÊÃθ«¤Ë´ð¤Å¤¯¤â¤Î¤Ç¤¢¤ë¡¢¤È¤¤¤¦¤³¤È¤ò¤è¤êÌÀ³Î¤Ë¤¹¤ë¤¿¤á¤Î¶ìÆù¤Îºö¤À¤Ã¤¿¤è¤¦¤Ç¤¹¡£
¤µ¤Æ¡¢º£¸å¡¢ÆüËܤϤɤΤ褦¤ËÃϵ岹ÃȲ½Âкö¤Ë¼è¤êÁȤó¤Ç¤¤¤¯¤Î¤Ç¤·¤ç¤¦¤«¤Í¤¨¡£¡ÊÀèÆü¤ÎÆü·Ð¿·Ê¹¤Î¼ÒÀâ¤Ç¤Ï¡¢¡Ö²¹ÃȲ½Âкö·×²è¤Î¸«Ä¾¤·¤Ï¿ô¹ç¤ï¤»¤Ë²á¤®¤Ê¤¤¡×¤È¸·¤·¤¤ÏÀÄ´¤Ç¤·¤¿¤¬¡¢Á´¤¯Æ±´¶¤Ç¤¹¡£¡Ë