---- 以下引用 ---- Here, we estimate the long-term population size of the Antarctic minke whale prior to whaling by sequencing 11 nuclear genetic markers from 52 modern samples purchased in Japanese meat markets.
We use coalescent simulations to explore the potential influence of population substructure and find that even though our samples are drawn from a limited geographic area, our estimate reflects ocean-wide genetic diversity.
Using Bayesian estimates of the mutation rate and coalescent-based analyses of genetic diversity across loci, we calculate the long-term population size of the Antarctic minke whale to be 670 000 individuals (95% confidence interval: 374,000 - 1,150,000). Our estimate of long-term abundance is similar to, or greater than, contemporary abundance estimates, suggesting that managing Antarctic ecosystems under the assumption that Antarctic minke whales are unusually abundant is not warranted.
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But beyond simply rejecting the null hypothesis, they rejected it with the most conservative possibly parameters.
They made every effort to confirm the Krill Surplus Hypothesis but could not.
It would have been simple to use a different mutation model, to calculate a harmonic population size that would have put the estimate higher, increasing the likelihood that their results would confirm their bias (I can only assume that Palumbi et al are opposed to Japanese whaling). But by collecting and analyzing the data in the most rigorous way, they’ve provided the strongest possible rejection of the Krill Surplus Hypothesis.
This is what I was talking about in “The Data Speak” good data don’t need spin, they needs to be publicly available and presented to stakeholders.
Steve Palumbi is an advocate, a strong passionate advocate, but his data stand on their own, independent of the scientist’s ideals
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